The SiC (silicon carbide) wafer market is facing a slowdown in 2025. The SiC power semiconductor market, once seen as the backbone of the electric vehicle revolution, is now facing many challenges.
In recent years, lower-than-expected demand for electric vehicles and the active production of Chinese manufacturers have put tremendous pressure on the global SiC market. Industry analysts point out that Wolfspeed, a US silicon carbide wafer company, is expected to file for bankruptcy, highlighting the price pressure and overcapacity problems brought by the Chinese market. Driven by Chinese state subsidies, a large number of low-cost silicon carbide wafers have flooded the market, causing prices to fall and disrupting the global supply pattern.
At the same time, Japan's Renesas Electronics has also made a major decision. The company originally planned to start production of electric vehicle silicon carbide (SiC) components at its Takasaki plant in early 2025, but due to slowing growth in electric vehicle sales, deteriorating market conditions and a sharp increase in production in China, Renesas Electronics terminated the mass production plan and disbanded the development team on the grounds that profit margins were unsustainable.
According to market data, SiC can handle higher currents than silicon and has significant advantages in improving the range of electric vehicle powertrain applications. Fuji Keizai estimates that the SiC wafer market will reach 143.6 billion yen (about 999.62 million U.S. dollars) in 2024, but sales growth will exceed revenue growth due to falling unit prices. In 2024, despite weakening demand for SiC power semiconductors, Chinese manufacturers' SiC wafer sales (in square meters) still increased by 81.9%, but low-cost 6-inch wafers triggered price declines, resulting in a market value increase of only 46.1%.
Looking ahead to 2025, delayed investment in 8-inch SiC wafer production lines is expected to suppress the growth of both sales area and market value to around 20%, a significant slowdown from the strong growth in 2024. Although 8-inch wafers are considered key to future market expansion, China's aggressive pricing strategy continues to lower overall prices, limiting potential revenue growth despite steady growth in sales areas. Currently, 6-inch wafers still dominate, accounting for more than 90% of sales, while the market share of 4-inch wafers is declining, and the 8-inch wafer market is expected to achieve rapid growth after 2026. The SiC chip market is expected to grow to 619.5 billion yen by 2035, a 3.3-fold increase from the current level.
In addition to SiC, other next-generation semiconductor materials are gaining attention. Fourth-generation semiconductor materials such as diamond, aluminum nitride (AlN) and germanium dioxide (GeO?) wafers are ready to go. In particular, diamond wafers are expected to enter the market with the commercialization of 2-inch wafers around 2026, and their power semiconductor market is expected to grow rapidly, reaching a market size of 4.6 billion yen by 2035. Aluminum nitride wafers have begun shipping 4-inch samples, with broad application prospects and are expected to achieve formal mass production in the next few years. Germanium dioxide wafers are also about to launch 6-inch epitaxial wafers, which are expected to be available around 2030.
These fourth-generation semiconductor materials have broad application prospects in many fields. In the field of new energy vehicles, their devices can be used in key components such as inverters and chargers to significantly improve energy conversion efficiency, reduce energy consumption, and extend battery life. For example, gallium oxide power devices can reduce the size and weight of inverters and increase power density. In the field of 5G communications, high-performance RF devices can be manufactured with high-frequency and high-response speed characteristics to improve signal quality and transmission speed and meet the communication needs of 5G base stations and other equipment. In the field of power electronics, they can be used in scenarios such as smart grids and renewable energy generation to improve power conversion and transmission efficiency and reduce energy loss. For example, the application of silicon carbide or gallium oxide devices in photovoltaic inverters can improve power generation efficiency and stability.
However, the fourth-generation semiconductor materials still face many challenges in the process of industrialization. The technical difficulties in the preparation of large-size single crystals have not been completely overcome, resulting in high material costs and limiting large-scale commercial applications. Taking gallium oxide as an example, its high melting point, high-temperature decomposition, and easy cracking make it extremely difficult to prepare large-size gallium oxide single crystals. In addition, related device design, manufacturing process and packaging technology also need to be further improved and optimized to fully exert their performance advantages.
Tags：