According to people familiar with the matter, Apple's 4nm chips produced at TSMC's Arizona plant (Fab 21) have entered the final quality verification stage, and Nvidia and AMD are also conducting chip trial production at the plant. However, TSMC's US plant does not yet have advanced packaging capabilities, so the chips still need to be shipped back to Taiwan for packaging.
In the latest report, foreign media mentioned that TSMC's Arizona plant, which began to manufacture A16 bionic chips for Apple in small batches in September last year, is currently certifying and verifying the chips. Once the quality assurance stage is reached, it is expected that large-scale foundry chips will be delivered soon, and it is even possible to start supplying Apple devices this quarter.
TSMC's US wafer fab project in Arizona currently includes three factories, the first of which specializes in 4nm nodes and is scheduled to go into mass production in the first half of this year, expanding to produce 20,000 chips per month; the second provides 3nm and 2nm production capacity and is expected to start production in 2028; in April 2024, TSMC agreed to increase its investment by US$25 billion to US$65 billion (the largest foreign direct investment project in US history), and plans to build a third wafer fab in the state in 2030, targeting 2nm and more advanced processes.
At the same time, TSMC's production plans in Taiwan are also being promoted simultaneously. The 2nm process will first be trial-produced in wafer fabs in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, and is planned to achieve mass production by 2025. By 2026, TSMC is expected to reach a production capacity of 120,000 2nm chips per month, and by 2028, this number will be further increased. It is expected that the US market will also benefit from this cutting-edge semiconductor technology.
According to the non-binding preliminary memorandum reached between TSMC and the U.S. Department of Commerce, the latter will grant TSMC up to $6.6 billion in direct financial subsidies and $5 billion in low-interest loans under the U.S. Chip Act. U.S. Commerce Secretary Raymondo has repeatedly emphasized that 92% of the most advanced chips purchased by the United States come from Taiwan, so TSMC's Arizona plant is a test of the United States' efforts to reduce its dependence on overseas production chips. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce's forecast, by 2030, the United States will be able to produce about 20% of the world's advanced chips.
Although the United States occupies a leading position in chip design, it has always been deficient in chip manufacturing. Especially in the manufacturing of advanced process technology, the United States has long relied on Asian factories. TSMC, as the world's largest semiconductor foundry, is the key to solving this problem.
However, TSMC's choice to build a factory in the United States is not without challenges. Although the U.S. government has provided support for the Chip Act, including financial subsidies and tax incentives, TSMC's manufacturing costs in the United States are much higher than those in Taiwan. It is revealed that due to the lack of materials with stable process yields in the United States and the shortage of semiconductor supply chains, TSMC's production costs in the United States are expected to be 30% higher than existing factories.
The cost surge of TSMC's US factory is mainly due to multiple factors. The salary level of local engineers in the United States is 2.5 times that of Taiwan, the cost of factory construction is 4 times higher, the imperfect supply chain supporting leads to increased logistics costs, and the additional expenses brought by strict environmental regulations in the United States. These factors have jointly pushed up production costs, making American-made chips at a disadvantage in price competitiveness.
In addition, in the early stage of production, due to problems such as shortage of skilled workers, mass production time was once delayed. About 50% of TSMC's employees in the United States are from Taiwan, China, but as factories are built in the next five years, the proportion of American workers will continue to increase.
It should be noted that TSMC's advanced process technology in the United States may bring certain risks of technology outflow. How to avoid the loss of important technologies while maintaining technological competitiveness will be an important issue facing TSMC in the future. It is reported that on January 16, TSMC will hold a press conference for the fourth quarter of 2024. Previously, TSMC expected sales in the fourth quarter to be between US$26.1 billion and US$26.9 billion, and gross profit margin was expected to be between 57% and 59%.
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